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 Post subject: Re: Peter Schiff For President
PostPosted: 22 Jan 2009, 16:04 
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actually no boob jr. my economics holds water and makes sense. whatever the fuck you posted was irrelevant, innane, and overall idiotic.

stop talking.

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 Post subject: Re: Peter Schiff For President
PostPosted: 30 Jan 2009, 15:26 
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My popularity on television and the internet has led a very small money manager to use his popular financial blog to promote his fledgling business by attacking the recent poor performance of my long-term investment strategy. The post is causing quite a stir and compels me to provide some badly needed context.

To achieve his ends, this individual has distorted much of what I have been saying and writing, and has twisted the facts to support his own preconceived conclusion. In essence, his piece is nothing more than an overt advertisement (and a highly deceptive one at that) to use my popularity to advance his career. In so doing he has given my critics, particularly some who have been embarrassed by their roles in the "Peter Schiff was Right" video, their moments of retribution. In addition, some members of the press who have never been among my greatest fans are seizing the opportunity to discredit me as well.

The crux of the blogger's arguments are that my beliefs in "decoupling, hyperinflation, and that the dollar is going to zero" have been completely discredited by the events of 2008, and that the resulting investment losses suffered by my clients last year confirms the fatal flaws in my approach.
In addition to mischaracterizing many of my beliefs, he also is confusing short-term market fluctuations with long-term economic trends.

First of all, the hyper inflation issue is a straw man at best. While I often talk about the possibility of hyper inflation, I have always said that it would be a worse-case scenario that would play out over many years. The fact that it did not appear in the first year of the economic crash (2008) does not invalidate my position. I have always maintained that this worst-case scenario will likely be avoided by what will ultimately be a dramatic shift in policy once our leaders come to their senses. However, until then the dollar will likely lose a substantial portion of its value.

Second, I never said that the dollar would go to zero, either in 2008 or any year thereafter. I have said that in the event of hyper inflation the dollar's value would approach zero. My actual forecast in my book "Crash Proof" was that the Dollar Index would fall to 40 (currently about 85), with a realistic worst case scenario, assuming very high but not hyper inflation, of 20 or lower.

Third, the blogger points out that because the decoupling theory (foreign economies improving while the U.S. falters) that I wrote about in "Crash Proof" has yet to occur, that the theory itself was ridiculous. In my book I wrote that this process would not occur overnight, that initially our creditors would come to our aid, and in so doing our problems would become manifest abroad. I wrote that it would take time for the world to realize that what had been decoupled from the economic train was not the engine but the caboose. In fact, that is precisely the way it is playing out.

Chapter Ten of "Crash Proof" is specifically focused on the need to keep funds liquid to take advantage of the buying opportunity that would initially develop once our stock market began its collapse. I specifically mentioned that when U.S. stocks began to fall, we could expect sympathetic declines overseas. While I did not know the precise timing of those events, I advised readers to prepare.

I did not expect the huge dollar rally of 2008. But to discredit my long-term view of the dollar based on an eight month move is absurd. So while I believed that a weak dollar would cushion the temporary decline I expected in foreign stocks, a strong dollar ended up exacerbating it. In the meantime, I believed that the high dividends these stocks were paying would make it easier to ride out any correction. The problem was that the dollar fell so far leading up to the crisis (in 2005-2007) that by the time the crisis finally erupted the dollar was poised for a bounce.

Central to the argument that my investment thesis is wrong is the belief that the crisis is over or that the recent trends will continue until it is. But the crisis is just beginning and the movements thus far in the dollar, commodities, and foreign stocks, are mere head fakes. Once the speculators have been flushed from the markets, the underlying long-term trends I have been following should return in earnest.

To illustrate the flaws in my investment strategy the blogger has posted a client's statement that shows a loss in excess of 60%. In addition, he claims to know of other Euro Pacific clients who have experienced similar losses. The inference of course is that most, or all, of my clients must have suffered similar losses, and the existence of such losses proves that I am wrong. In fact, some have gone a step further, claiming that such losses prove that I am a fraud.

First let's deal with the one client's account. I have been following several key investment themes for the past ten years. The basis for my strategy is that recent U.S. prosperity has been false, and that the consequences of the bursting of our bubble economy would ultimately play out in a substantial decline in the value of the U.S. dollar, higher commodity prices, the re-monetization of gold, and foreign equities substantially outperforming U.S. markets. From an investment perspective, those themes played out extremely well in the eight years from 2000-2007. Recently we have seen a sharp, and I believe temporary, reversal of these trends. Those that came late to the party (at least based on where we are today) now have to ride out a particularly difficult correction.

For example, the account in question belongs to the son of a long-standing Euro Pacific client, who is still adding funds to his accounts. Without specially commenting on the performance of the father's account, it must have been compelling enough to finally persuade the son to come on board himself in early 2008. However, as is often the case, by the time he came on board, foreign stocks and commodities were about to sell off, and the dollar was about to begin its unexpected rally. Following such a sharp correction, the son now regrets his decision and must blame me for my part in helping him make it.

Perhaps as a stockbroker I should have persuaded the son to wait for a correction. However, while this clearly would have been the right call with the full benefit of hind-sight, it was certainly not as clear given the information I had at the time. However, I never held myself out to be a market timer. My advice was always geared to long-term investors. Given the thousands of clients that I have, and the large number who joined near the recent dollar peak and market tops, it's no wonder that a few have contacted this blogger to complain; especially since he has actively sought them out. Of course, the fact that the overwhelming majority of my clients are not complaining, to him or anyone else for that matter, says a lot more about what is really going on.

To the extent that the long-term trends I have been following continue, I am confident that even those whose short-term timing was bad will still do well in time. This is especially true if they take advantage of this pull back by adding to their accounts, either with new funds or by re-investing their dividends. However, to examine the effectiveness of my investment strategy immediately following a major correction by looking only at those accounts who adopted the strategy at the previous peak is unfair and distortive.

Since I have been advising investors to follow these trends for ten years, I will leave it to the public to draw their own conclusions as to how long-term followers of my strategy have fared. However, for those who only recently adopted my approach in 2007 or 2008, the road has been a lot bumpier than they or I thought it would be when they climbed on board. Yet if these long-term trends re-emerge, though the journey may be different than planned, the ultimate destination will remain the same.

The blogger in question implies that all of my clients are down by levels similar to the account he cites. He has asked me to refute his allegations by providing broader performance figures for more clients. But, since Euro Pacific Capital is a brokerage firm and not a Registered Investment Advisor, I am prohibited by regulators from providing any details on the investment performance achieved by my clients. The blogger in question makes his challenge knowing full well that I am legally prevented from accepting it. He then uses my failure to refute his false claim as validating its accuracy.
In addition, consider that 70% of the account in question happens to be invested in mining and energy stocks. These were the two sectors that got hit the hardest in the recent downturn. This is a very aggressive exposure to those sectors and not typical of Euro Pacific clients. While it is true that many of my clients are interested in these two sectors and specifically seek portfolios heavily weighted in these areas, most take a more balanced approach, with mining and energy typically representing 20% to 30% of their portfolios. I also have clients with minimal or no exposure to these sectors.

All Euro Pacific client accounts are different reflecting the individual objectives of each client. In general the goals of my clients are to get out of the dollar and hedge against inflation. However the way each client chooses to pursue these goals varies. Some choose a relatively conservative approach, consisting mainly of utilities, property trusts and bonds, others choice a more balanced approach, adding exposure to infrastructure, agriculture, energy trusts, and transportation, while some are more aggressive with heavy exposure to resources, junior mining companies, and oil and gas exploration companies.

Some clients specifically seek to gain or avoid exposure to certain regions, sectors or currencies. Some are focused more on long-term preservation of purchasing power, while others look to maximize long-term appreciation. Most of my accounts are yield oriented, but many of my clients specially request more aggressive growth oriented portfolios. In a down market to evaluate my investment strategy based solely on the performance of the most aggressive accounts is completely unfair. Doing so ignores the better performance of less aggressive accounts that were not hit nearly as hard.

In addition, to look only at the performance of foreign stocks, while ignoring other aspects of my investment strategy only tells part of the story. What about gold, foreign bonds, short positions in financials, home builders and subprime mortgages (or merely avoiding long exposure to those sectors), or other investments people have made, either at Euro Pacific or elsewhere based on my insights? What about dividends earned, or gains realized on closed positions?

Mainstream economists, journalists, and investment professionals have never liked my message and have never resisted the temptation to shoot the messenger. When my investment strategies were performing well, I got little credit for it. Instead, all the attention was focused on the apparent failure of my dire economic predictions to materialize. Now that the economy is collapsing along the lines that I correctly forecast, criticism is being focused on the recent poor performance of my investment strategy (a fact that I have never tried to hide). Of course by the time my investment strategy is once again in step with my economic forecasts, an event that I believe will occur sooner than most people think, it will likely be too late for most people to do adopt it.

My critics have often referred to me as a stopped clock. I believe that the accusation is best leveled at the accusers. Having been wrong for so long, they are now enjoying their brief moment in the sun. They should enjoy it while it lasts. For now, they are creating fodder for some future "Peter Schiff was Right" piece where those who now criticize my investment performance will look just as foolish as those who once criticized my economic forecasts.


i love this man


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 Post subject: Re: Peter Schiff For President
PostPosted: 06 Feb 2009, 00:26 
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Alex Jones Show 1/4


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 Post subject: Re: Peter Schiff For President
PostPosted: 06 Feb 2009, 10:36 
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Obamanomics...





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 Post subject: Re: Peter Schiff For President
PostPosted: 06 Feb 2009, 12:19 
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the look on her face when he says "thats the last thing we want consumers to do, is spend money" is priceless.

amen, less spending more production. on that note my 'parts manufactured in china, assembled in the USA (by me)" cpu is running like a fucking champion.

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 Post subject: Re: Peter Schiff For President
PostPosted: 17 Feb 2009, 13:57 
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 Post subject: Re: Peter Schiff For President
PostPosted: 17 Feb 2009, 17:08 
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amen, less spending more production.

Lol stupidest thing I've read in a while.
Unless of course you have a magical wand of +1000 export.

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 Post subject: Re: Peter Schiff For President
PostPosted: 17 Feb 2009, 20:31 
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actually the stupidest thing i've read is you every time you try to pretend you know something. which you clearly don't. which is why you try to pretend you do.

loser.

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 Post subject: Re: Peter Schiff For President
PostPosted: 17 Feb 2009, 21:02 
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Sorry, I forgot that you're smarter than every economics professor in the northern hemisphere.

I'll try to remember that for next time you impart your spectacular knowledge on us.

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 Post subject: Re: Peter Schiff For President
PostPosted: 17 Feb 2009, 21:29 
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you fucking better. moron.

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 Post subject: Re: Peter Schiff For President
PostPosted: 24 Feb 2009, 15:56 
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 Post subject: Re: Peter Schiff For President
PostPosted: 24 Feb 2009, 23:44 
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does fox news select their panelists on staggering levels of idiocy , obtuseness, and inability to carry on a conversation because they are so self righteous. fucking a I hate people like that. Pete has the patience of a saint.

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 Post subject: Re: Peter Schiff For President
PostPosted: 25 Feb 2009, 10:05 
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 Post subject: Re: Peter Schiff For President
PostPosted: 25 Feb 2009, 15:55 
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Anyone who believes any of the following are true, is an idiot:
1) That privacy and liberty are the same thing
2) There is an umbrella right to privacy
3) The general population actually gives a shit about personal privacy anymore

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 Post subject: Re: Peter Schiff For President
PostPosted: 25 Feb 2009, 19:19 
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I think you...scratch that...I know you are an idiot.

A) Trying to misconstrue the desire for personal privacy into some parasitic relationship with liberty is absurd. Liberty guarantees privacy. Everyone knows that Liberty trumps privacy.

b) There is an umbrella right to privacy in my country. It's called innocent until proven guilty. It's called the right to due process. It's called the right guaranteeing no unlawful search and seizures. Actually lets just go with "the constitution" guarantees privacy.

c) I am a member of the general population. I care deeply about my personal privacy. That does not preclude me sharing things with people or "forfeiting my privacy" it simply means that I, and I alone, choose who knows what about me. Period.


Now butt out of a good thread you faggot socialist dick sucker.

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 Post subject: Re: Peter Schiff For President
PostPosted: 26 Feb 2009, 00:47 
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mzziqztixl wrote:
A) Trying to misconstrue the desire for personal privacy into some parasitic relationship with liberty is absurd. Liberty guarantees privacy. Everyone knows that Liberty trumps privacy.


My 6 year old niece knows that the word 'control' and 'privacy' don't have anything to do with each other

mzziqztixl wrote:
b) There is an umbrella right to privacy in my country. It's called innocent until proven guilty. It's called the right to due process. It's called the right guaranteeing no unlawful search and seizures. Actually lets just go with "the constitution" guarantees privacy.

Lol wow... the only example there that has anything remotely to do with privacy is unlawful search.... and I included the word 'umbrella' for a reason.
Try again.

mzziqztixl wrote:
c) I am a member of the general population. I care deeply about my personal privacy.

I can't figure out whether you're just insanely ignorant, or so arrogant as to assume that everyone follows your values

mzziqztixl wrote:
it simply means that I, and I alone, choose who knows what about me. Period.

I think you're living in a dream world buddy, because that hasn't been the case for years.


This is a new low for you, mzz. But I have no doubt you'll come back trying to defend your drunken stupor of an argument, with more failed reasoning and the inability to read and comprehend.

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 Post subject: Re: Peter Schiff For President
PostPosted: 26 Feb 2009, 09:06 
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TwoZeroOZ wrote:

My 6 year old niece knows that the word 'control' and 'privacy' don't have anything to do with each other


Is she slow? Short a few chromosomes? Without privacy what we are staring down the barrel of is the government having access to blood samples, stool samples and more just to regulate and control your diet once we move to a single payer health plan. Thats the 30 year goal.

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Lol wow... the only example there that has anything remotely to do with privacy is unlawful search.... and I included the word 'umbrella' for a reason.
Try again.


Unlawful search and seizure would include the search and seizure of private medical records and whats in my pockets.

Quote:
I can't figure out whether you're just insanely ignorant, or so arrogant as to assume that everyone follows your values


Most people don't want daddy government telling me what to do everyday.

Quote:
I think you're living in a dream world buddy, because that hasn't been the case for years.

This is a new low for you, mzz. But I have no doubt you'll come back trying to defend your drunken stupor of an argument, with more failed reasoning and the inability to read and comprehend.


You actually havent really made any points and havent shown any evidence yet as to why he is wrong, rather simply posted yet another opinion without any backing via fact.


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 Post subject: Re: Peter Schiff For President
PostPosted: 26 Feb 2009, 14:38 
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Come on Anon, you need to learn to look past your personal opinions and not let them distort your comprehension abilities. You're a smart guy, I know you're capable of it.

Anon wrote:
Without privacy what we are staring down the barrel of is the government having access to blood samples, stool samples and more just to regulate and control your diet once we move to a single payer health plan. Thats the 30 year goal.

There is a difference between privacy and control. You're using your imagination to link the two together - this does not mean that you have proved they have the same meaning. A similarly silly argument would be "With freedom you can commit crimes, therefore freedom is bad".
Also, even you have to admit that this is just speculation - some might consider it the ramblings of a paranoid loon.

Anon wrote:
Unlawful search and seizure would include the search and seizure of private medical records and whats in my pockets.

This is what's called a strawman argument. Figure out why.


Anon wrote:
Most people don't want daddy government telling me what to do everyday.

Again, there's a distinct difference between privacy and control. They have two completely seperate meanings and what I was arguing had nothing to do with government control - please understand this.


Back on topic though, I don't believe the general population (not you personally, Mzz) cares about the erosion of privacy. While some people are scared shitless and see links between the lack of privacy and total government control (even when these links are incredible far-stretched), these people are in the minority. Openess dominates this generation's values. This is evident by something as simple as facebook, myspace, and twitter. People want to broadcast their lives and privacy simply isn't an issue. Most people just do not care if the government is "capable" of zooming in on their face with a sattelite during the day, or even something more extreme - if there position is known at all times. Most people see this as irrelevant.

Neither view is based on ignorance, just different values. It's arrogant to assume that because you value privacy, the rest of the world should as well.

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 Post subject: Re: Peter Schiff For President
PostPosted: 26 Feb 2009, 15:03 
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Its also very arrogant to think that someone else has the right to take that away from you. Especially when that right was not spelled out in the constitution. The Constitution is the document that gives the fed its power, not the document that limits it's power. It gives specific powers to the government, the rest are denied by default.


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 Post subject: Re: Peter Schiff For President
PostPosted: 26 Feb 2009, 15:26 
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the problem is that it has been turned around to limit the fed, and they are running roughshod over the whole damned thing.


I'm telling you we are going to be living in Communist Russia soon. hmmm USSA United Socialist States of America, has a certain ring to it doesn't it?

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 Post subject: Re: Peter Schiff For President
PostPosted: 26 Feb 2009, 19:59 
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Anon wrote:
Its also very arrogant to think that someone else has the right to take that away from you. Especially when that right was not spelled out in the constitution. The Constitution is the document that gives the fed its power, not the document that limits it's power. It gives specific powers to the government, the rest are denied by default.

You sure do have a habit of taking arguments in an entirely different direction, don't you?

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 Post subject: Re: Peter Schiff For President
PostPosted: 28 Feb 2009, 00:05 
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you have a habit of telling people their opinions are wrong and then proclaiming yourself as right

ie you're a dumb fuck.

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 Post subject: Re: Peter Schiff For President
PostPosted: 04 Mar 2009, 09:58 
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Remember if you are going to argue, provide some evidence and links to back ya up or you really can't prove anything.

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In his first televised speech before Congress, President Obama asserted that prosperity will return once the government restores the flow of credit in the economy. It may come as a surprise to him, but an economy cannot run on consumer loans. Furthermore, credit stopped flowing in the U.S. for a very good reason: there was no more savings left to loan. Government efforts to simply make credit available, without rebuilding productive capacity or increasing savings, are doomed to destroy what’s left of our economy.

The central tenets of Obamanomics appear to be that access to credit will enable people to borrow money to buy stuff, the spending will spur production and employment, and thus the economy will grow. It’s a neat and simple picture, but it has nothing whatsoever to do with how an economy works. The President does not understand that consumption is made possible by production and that credit is made possible by savings. The size and complexity of modern economies has obscured these simple concepts, but reducing the picture to a small scale can help clear away the fog.

Suppose there is a very small barter-based economy consisting of only three individuals, a butcher, a baker, and a candlestick maker. If the candlestick maker wants bread or steak, he makes candles and trades. The candlestick maker always wants food, but his demand can only be satisfied if he makes candles, without which he goes hungry. The mere fact that he desires bread and steak is meaningless.

Enter the magic wand of credit, which many now assume can take the place of production. Suppose the butcher has managed to produce an excess amount of steak and has more than he needs on a daily basis. Knowing this, the candlestick maker asks to borrow a steak from the butcher to trade to the baker for bread. For this transaction to take place the butcher must first have produced steaks which he did not consume (savings). He then loans his savings to the candlestick maker, who issues the butcher a note promising to repay his debt in candlesticks.

In this instance, it was the butcher’s production of steak that enabled the candlestick maker to buy bread, which also had to be produced. The fact that the candlestick maker had access to credit did not increase demand or bolster the economy. In fact, by using credit to buy instead of candles, the economy now has fewer candles, and the butcher now has fewer steaks with which to buy bread himself. What has happened is that through savings, the butcher has loaned his purchasing power, created by his production, to the candlestick maker, who used it to buy bread.

Similarly, the candlestick maker could have offered “IOU candlesticks” directly to the baker. Again, the transaction could only be successful if the baker actually baked bread that he did not consume himself and was therefore able to loan his savings to the candlestick maker. Since he loaned his bread to the candlestick maker, he no longer has that bread himself to trade for steak.

The existence of credit in no way increases aggregate consumption within this community, it merely temporarily alters the way consumption is distributed. The only way for aggregate consumption to increase is for the production of candlesticks, steak, and bread to increase.

One way credit could be used to grow this economy would be for the candlestick maker to borrow bread and steak for sustenance while he improves the productive capacity of his candlestick-making equipment. If successful, he could repay his loans with interest out of his increased production, and all would benefit from greater productivity. In this case the under-consumption of the butcher and baker led to the accumulation of savings, which were then loaned to the candlestick maker to finance capital investments. Had the butcher and baker consumed all their production, no savings would have been accumulated, and no credit would have been available to the candlestick maker, depriving society of the increased productivity that would have followed.

On the other hand, had the candlestick maker merely borrowed bread and steak to sustain himself while taking a vacation from candlestick making, society would gain nothing, and there would be a good chance the candlestick maker would default on the loan. In this case, the extension of consumer credit squanders savings which are now no longer available to finance other capital investments.

What would happen if a natural disaster destroyed all the equipment used to make candlesticks, bread and steak? Confronted with dangerous shortages of food and lighting, Barack Obama would offer to stimulate the economy by handing out pieces of paper called money and guaranteeing loans to whomever wants to consume. What good would the money do? Would these pieces of paper or loans make goods magically appear?

The mere introduction of paper money into this economy only increases the ability of the butcher, baker, and candlestick maker to bid up prices (measured in money, not trade goods) once goods are actually produced again. The only way to restore actual prosperity is to repair the destroyed equipment and start producing again.

The sad truth is that the productive capacity of the American economy is now largely in tatters. Our industrial economy has been replaced by a reliance on health care, financial services and government spending. Introducing freer flowing credit and more printed money into such a system will do nothing except spark inflation. We need to get back to the basics of production. It won’t be easy, but it will work.

President Obama would have us believe that we can all spend the day relaxing in a tub while his printing press does all the work for us. The problem comes when you get out of the tub to go to dinner and the only thing on your plate is an IOU for steak.

Mr. Schiff is president of Euro Pacific Capital and author of "The Little Book of Bull Moves in Bear Markets" (Wiley, 2008).


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 Post subject: Re: Peter Schiff For President
PostPosted: 04 Mar 2009, 10:50 
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I didn't think 'evidence' was necessary, but alright....

Quote:
Anyone who believes any of the following are true, is an idiot:
1) That privacy and liberty are the same thing

http://www.dictionary.com
Quote:
2) There is an umbrella right to privacy

http://www.wikipedia.com search: american constitution
Quote:
3) The general population actually gives a shit about personal privacy anymore

Obviously less fact, more opinion, but it seems obvious to me based on a couple of things:
1) Myspace, Facebook, twitter, etc. The new generations all want the world to know everything about them
2) Nobody except a couple conspiracy theorists on a bunch of internet forums actually cares enough to talk about things like this. Whether this is because of stupidity or a change in social values is up for debate. Either way, nobody cares that privacy is being erroded.

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I'm a greasy teenager with nothing going for me... keep your distance from me... It's people like you who have fucked me up royally in the first place -and you know I'm a mess… I just can't seem to get over wanting everybody to like me. - #1 Queen of TOT


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 Post subject: Re: Peter Schiff For President
PostPosted: 04 Mar 2009, 15:52 
Epic Cocksucker
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TwoZeroOZ wrote:
The new generations all want the world to know everything about them

That's really the people's choice to let the world know about them. That is what we got in our freedom of expression.
But there are more accounts in your examples (myspace, facebook, twitter) and more (like dating sites) where people are fake. We CHOOSE to express ourselves and whether we want to reveal (and how much we reveal) or make a fake alias to fulfill some psychological need.
These social networking sites and methods of self expression give people to choose how much privacy they want, there is no government force to take that away from us.

Most of us choose imaginary aliases to hide our identity, thus preserving some privacy, but still use this board as our method of self expression at the same time. Some of us share pictures, which shows that we are less possessive of our privacy and are more apt to person to person socialization.

Now, Myspace and Facebook offer to make your private life public or limiting access to your private life to a select group. This lets them control their privacy to their comfort level.

Its all about giving us the freedom of choice.

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